Report
As small businesses prepare for growth - tariffs take center stage
Published December 3, 2024
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
The U.S. (United States) has been in a state of suspended animation from a small business perspective. The domestic election cycle was full of promises focused on government spending to resolve consumer and small business perceived challenges for the next four years. As we emerge from the election cycle, with a clean transition expected, what rhetoric will become a reality is creating uncertainty among lenders and small businesses. Macroeconomic indicators are leaning positive, while stubborn inflation increases prices and borrowing costs. Lenders are targeting a looser environment for underwriting as cashflows remain positive and small businesses feel the rush of holiday shopping. Growth is coming in 2025; the question is how quickly companies can prepare and maneuver through the next 6 months of policy and global volatility.
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Industry-specific risk models
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Report
Uncertainty, AI, and White-Collar Hiring
While the US labor market remains on decent footing, it has become increasingly challenging to land a job. For lenders, current dynamics suggest there could be greater-than-expected stress in higher-income households and in the Prime credit segments of the market if layoffs increase and job opportunities for these workers remain scarce. Insights include:
- Businesses are scaling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty and AI uptake
- Employment in both tech-centric and broader professional and business services has been stagnant
- Higher-educated/white-collar workers feeling the strain of a challenging job market
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Macroeconomic forecasting and regional trends - May 2025
As we progress through 2025, economic conditions continue to shift as uncertainty climbs. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.
Report
Small Business Resilience Amid Economic Divergence
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!